crashbashremaster| Zhuochuang Information: Coke profits are repaired and steel profits shrink, and subsequent market expectations weaken
(Zhuochuang Information analyst, Senior one)
[introduction] the fifth round of coke increase failed to hit the ground. recently, due to the fall in raw material prices, the decline in coke enterprise costs, profits gradually repaired to the ideal state, good intention to start work, so the load continues to recover, most of them have started normally, and coke supply continues to increase. Downstream steel mill inventory replenishment to the ideal state, converted to on-demand procurement, and due to profit contraction, open the lift and decline mode, the market may enter the downward range.
Price dataCrashbashremasterThe price of coal and coke steel has rebounded.
After rising, the price of double coke stabilized. As of May 17, the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 2060 yuan / ton, which was 400 yuan / ton higher than that in mid-April, an increase of 24%.Crashbashremaster.1%. The price of raw material coking coal has also risen. The tax price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Luliang area of Shanxi Province is 1950 yuan / ton to 2000 yuan / ton, up 9.7% from the beginning of April. The increase of coke is greater than that of the cost side, the profits of coke enterprises continue to repair, the intention to start work is good, the load gradually returns to normal, and the supply increases. After the fourth round of coke landed on May 1, some coking enterprises tried to raise the fifth round, but the downstream steel mills did not respond and ran aground. The price of billet in Tangshan fluctuated downwards. As of May 17, the price of billet in Tangshan area was 3500 yuan / ton, up 7.2% from the beginning of April. The price of coal and coke steel has rebounded.
Profit data: Coke enterprise profits are gradually repaired, steel profits fall into losses
As of May 16, Hebei coke enterprises made a profit of 9 yuan per ton, a loss of 144 yuan per ton compared with the same period last month. Because the increase in raw material coking coal is less than that of coke, the cost pressure of coke enterprises is reduced, and profits are restored to a positive value. In addition, the downstream opened the replenishment mode in late April, the demand for coke is good, and the intention to start work has obviously rebounded. Downstream steel, due to rising raw material prices and squeezing profits at the cost end, gradually fell into a state of loss: as of May 16, billet profit-42.5yuan / ton, an increase of 185yuan / ton over the same period last month; hot coil profit-72.1yuan / ton, an increase of 212.3 yuan / ton over the same period last month; thread profit-37.7yuan / ton, an increase of 158.6 yuan / ton over the same period last month. As the steel mill profits into a loss, coupled with coke inventory gradually replenished to the ideal state, gradually included in the price reduction rhythm.
Start-up data: the coke oven start-up basically returned to normal, and the blast furnace start-up maintained a high level.
In the future, it is predicted that the coke supply will gradually relax, the market may enter the weak range after the demand stabilizes, as the profits of coke enterprises are gradually repaired to a positive value, and downstream steel mills continue to replenish the stock, the coking intention is good, and the load continues to pick up. As of May 16, the start of coke oven operation in the country was 73.7%, an increase of 8% over the same period in April, and the supply continued to increase. Blast furnace maintenance in downstream steel mills has gradually resumed production. At the same time, the recent completion of steel transactions is relatively good, and blast furnace construction has increased steadily. As of May 17, blast furnace construction nationwide started 84.9 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the same period in April. At present, both blast furnaces and coke ovens have returned to a higher level, and the supply and demand pattern has been gradually relaxed from the tight balance. With the gradual replenishment of coke stocks in steel mills, steel mills have begun to enter the price reduction rhythm due to steel losses and the high loosening of some coal blending prices.
Coking coal prices continue to stalemate, some coal blending prices are stable and weak, cost support becomes weaker, coke enterprises make good profits, start-up basically return to normal, shipments are OK, and supply is expected to increase significantly. The shock of steel price is weak, the start of blast furnace increases slightly, the replenishment effect is good, the inventory is gradually replenished to the normal level, the demand becomes stable in the short term, the port trader gathering port weakens, and the port inventory fluctuates little. Overall, the coke supply and demand pattern is gradually balanced, steel prices show signs of weakening, coupled with the weakening of cost support, steel mills have implemented the first round of decline, the follow-up market sentiment is weak.
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