casinoextreme1000freespins2022| Everbright Futures: May 27 Energy and Chemical Daily

Date: 3个月前 (05-27)View: 61Comments: 0

Crude oil: focus on the results of the OPEC meeting on June 2nd

1. Macro: the Federal Reserve announced this weekCasinoextreme1000freespins2022Minutes of the monetary policy meeting from April 30 to May 1.Casinoextreme1000freespins2022The minutes show that because of the poor inflation data in the first quarter, the Fed will watch the data for longer before it is more confident that inflation will fall to its target, and the overall expression is relatively hawkish. Market expectations for Fed interest rate cuts continue to fall, slightly more than 25bp this year, and the number of interest rate cuts is back again, weakening commodities, including precious metals and crude oil. The Iranian president's plane crash this week aroused some concern in the market, but had no significant impact on international oil prices.

2. On the supply side: the OPEC production reduction meeting will be held on June 1st. At present, the market expects that the production reduction will be extended to the end of the year. Due to the decline in the growth rate of global crude oil demand during the year and the increase in supply to non-OPEC countries, if the outcome of the meeting is not as expected, it will have a greater negative impact on the crude oil market. In addition, according to media reports, the Russian Ministry of Energy said that Russian oil production was in line with OPEC+ guidelines in the first quarter. For technical reasons, Russian production exceeded the OPEC+ quota in April and will submit a compensation plan "soon". In the second half of the year, there is expected to be room for compensatory production cuts in Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia.

3. Demand: according to the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic gasoline consumption from January to April in 2024 was 55.2 million tons, an increase of 2% over the same period last year.Casinoextreme1000freespins2022.13%. Gasoline consumption was lower than expected after the Spring Festival peak, and May Day holiday failed to effectively boost demand. At the same time, the alternative of new energy is still increasing. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 43% in April.Casinoextreme1000freespins2022.99%, Longzhong Information comprehensively estimates that the replacement rate of new energy for gasoline consumption is 12.8%. From January to April, domestic diesel consumption was 67.9 million tons,-3.5% compared with the same period last year. Due to the slow recovery of industrial demand and other factors, diesel consumption is also lower than market expectations. In addition, LNG heavy trucks are growing rapidly, with a penetration rate of 32.18% in April, restraining the rise in diesel consumption to a certain extent. At present, there are signs of a low rebound in domestic refinery operating rate, and the discount price of some imported crude oil has also loosened. It is expected that the rebound in refinery operating rate will boost domestic crude oil imports in the future. Overseas, the US Memorial Day holiday will be ushered in this weekend, which marks the beginning of the overseas summer travel peak, and the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States continues to pick up. The US will sell nearly 1 million barrels of gasoline stored in northeastern states on May 28 to prepare for the upcoming summer travel season, the Department of Energy said on Tuesday. EIA and API US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased this week, with EIA accumulating less than API. In addition, high-frequency data show that there has been a high decline in global crude oil inventories in the past two weeks, but it is still at a historical high in the same period. The realization of demand in the later period has a direct impact on the arrival of the turning point.

4. Strategic point of view: the recent oil price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is reduced again, which makes the inner and outer crude oil market mainly under pressure. In the short term, the peak season of overseas gasoline consumption is approaching, and it is expected that short-term oil prices will stabilize and pick up against the background of marginal recovery in demand. Follow the results of the OPEC meeting on June 2.

Fuel oil: high sulfur maintenance is stronger than low sulfur maintenance

1. On the supply side: recently, due to the closure of the arbitrage window, the volume of low-sulfur arbitrage shipments from Northwest Europe to Singapore has decreased significantly, so we have also seen a significant decline in Singapore's onshore fuel oil stocks and a sharp increase in onshore inventories in ARA. In the week ended May 23, the Singapore fuel depot recorded 15.778 million barrels, a decrease of 3.337 million barrels (17.46 per cent) compared with the previous week; Fucha fuel oil depot recorded 9.241 million barrels, a decrease of 722000 barrels (7.25 per cent) over the previous week; and ARA fuel oil stocks recorded 1.684 million tons, an increase of 156, 000 tons (10.21 per cent) over the previous week. Supplies from the Middle East and Russia are also tightening, with Russian shipments of high sulphur only 1.6 million tons in April, down 500000 tons from a month earlier and 850000 tons less than a year earlier.

2. Demand: in April, the feed demand for high sulfur in China's geotechnical industry returned to a high level. According to national customs statistics, China imported 3.7197 million tons of fuel oil in April 2024, an increase of 22.72 percent over the previous month and 36.48 percent over the same period last year. According to the preliminary monitoring data of Longzhong Information, the diluted asphalt and related heavy crude oil from Shandong and the surrounding main ports are expected to be between 110 and 1.4 million tons in May, and the goods obtained from georefining have been obviously repaired, of which diluted asphalt accounts for a relatively large proportion, which also means that the refining and chemical demand for high sulfur in May may be lower than that in April, but there will still be a certain proportion. Approaching the peak summer power generation season, Saudi Arabia's procurement demand for high sulfur has increased significantly, with imports expected to reach 620000 tons in April, an increase of 470000 tons compared with the previous month.

3. Cost: EIA and API US commercial crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly this week, in which EIA accumulation was less than API, while EIA gasoline inventory showed a decline, and the data was also better than API. The US will sell nearly 1 million barrels of gasoline stored in northeastern states on May 28 to prepare for the upcoming summer travel season, the Department of Energy said on Tuesday. On the macro front, this week the Fed released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting from April 30 to May 1, which showed that due to poor inflation data in the first quarter, the Fed will observe the data longer before it is more confident that inflation will fall to its target. The overall statement is relatively hawkish, and market expectations for Fed interest rate cuts continue to fall, weakening commodities, including precious metals and crude oil. Recently, oil prices are mainly affected by macro factors. In the short term, the peak season for overseas gasoline consumption is approaching, and oil prices are expected to usher in marginal support on the demand side. However, at present, the market is most concerned about whether the upcoming OPEC meeting on June 2 will extend the current production reduction agreement.

4. Strategic point of view: this week, international oil prices fluctuated and fell, and Singapore's fuel oil market was divided. From a fundamental point of view, weak demand is a drag on the low-sulfur fuel oil market, while the high-sulfur fuel oil market remains strong. Supported by European arbitrage inflows and reduced export bids from Al-Zour refineries, Singapore's low-sulphur market is in a state of tight supply but weak demand, while the fundamentals of the Asian high-sulphur market are boosted by both supply and demand. It is expected that in the short term, under the support of the supply and demand side, the situation that high sulfur is stronger than low sulfur will continue, and the price difference between high and low sulfur will remain low.

Bitumen: diluted asphalt imports increased

1. On the supply side: after late April, the diluted asphalt discount dropped obviously, and the import of diluted asphalt rebounded in May. The improvement of georefining production profits led to an increase in the willingness to start, and the supply side may be expected to increase to a certain extent. According to the preliminary monitoring data of Longzhong Information, in May, diluted asphalt and related heavy crude oil from Shandong and the surrounding main ports are expected to be between 110 and 1.4 million tons, with a month-on-month increment of 60 to 900000 tons. According to Longzhong statistics, as of May 20, the capacity utilization rate of 81 domestic asphalt enterprises was 26.5%, an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous week; the total weekly output of domestic asphalt was 465700 tons, an increase of 1.7% compared with the same period last year; a decrease of 13.5% over the same period last year. The cumulative output of asphalt from January to May in 2024 was 11.4632 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% over the same period last year.

2, demand: the shipments of asphalt manufacturers have increased significantly in recent weeks, or show that the downstream demand has been boosted to a certain extent. According to Longzhong information statistics, as of May 20, the sample shipments of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises totaled 377000 tons, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous month; the start-up level of modified asphalt increased by 0.5%. However, the overall demand is still low compared with the same period last year, which makes the inventory still have some pressure. This week, the inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social depots totaled 2.872 million tons, down 1.4% from the previous month; the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample plants totaled 1.217 million tons, down 0.1% from the previous year, but it was still 18.7% higher than the same period last year. The inflection point of inventory in the later period still needs to continue to pay attention to the recovery speed of terminal demand, as well as the issuance of local government special bonds and the landing of funds in the second quarter.

4. Strategic point of view: this week, international oil prices fluctuated and fell, while asphalt disk and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Judging from the import of diluted asphalt in May, the increase in the raw material side and the repair of production profits are expected to lead to an increase in the supply side in the coming months, but it needs to be seen whether the United States will extend some companies' oil business licenses in Venezuela. On the demand side, recent factory shipments have increased significantly, although still lower than the same period in previous years, but showing some signs of improvement. It is expected that the short-term asphalt panel price is still dominated by interval shocks, paying attention to the degree of incremental cashing at both ends of supply and demand.

Rubber: tapping is not smooth, the price of raw materials is strong, and the producing area actively responds to EUDR

1. On the supply side, the month-on-month precipitation in the domestic production areas has increased this week, the supply of raw material glue in the production areas is limited, the partial cutting rate has reached more than 60%, the precipitation in Hainan has increased, the output has been affected, and the price of raw materials has been strengthened. the price difference between the two places increased by 500 yuan / ton to 1400 yuan / ton; under the influence of precipitation in Thailand, glue and cup glue prices rose again, and the cost support is strong. The cup glue rose 2.5 to 59.15 baht / kg, the latex rose 2 to 79 baht / kg, and the price difference of the water cup widened again. Butadiene rubber supply: the start of butadiene rubber has declined, the output has shrunk, and the production cost of cis-polybutadiene rubber is high, and the loss has deepened. The restart plan of the cis-polybutadiene rubber plant has been delayed, and there is no plan to restart the 500000-ton plant in May.

2. On the demand side, the starting load of semi-steel tires in domestic tire enterprises this week was 80.44%, which was 0.13 percentage points lower than last week and 9.30 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The start-up load of all-steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises this week was 66.08%, 1.96 percentage points lower than last week and 2.67 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In April 2024, China exported 656700 tons of tires, a month-on-month ratio of-3.79%, a year-on-year increase of 2.33%. Among them, the truck tire export volume is 372500 tons, month-on-month ratio-3.41%, year-on-year-5.42%. Truck tires show a weak situation compared with the same month, export volume support is weak, South America and North America sea freight continues to rise, container shortage appears, the export volume is dragged. From the perspective of all-steel tire orders, the number of enterprise orders decreased more in May, and the demand for vehicle replacement weakened obviously.

3. Inventory: the inventory will continue to be removed to the warehouse this week, with a range of about 20,000 tons. In the week ended May 17, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 108200 tons, a decrease of 3800 tons, or 3.41%, compared with the previous period. As of the week of May 17, the general trade warehouse inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area was 345400 tons, a decrease of 13400 tons, or 3.72%, compared with the previous period. The total inventory is 453600 tons, a decrease of 17200 tons compared with the previous period. As of May 19, 2024, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.329 million tons, a decrease of 26000 tons, or 1.91%, compared with the previous period. The total stock of dark glue in China was 794000 tons, down 2.4 per cent from the previous period. The total stock of light-colored rubber in China was 535000 tons, down 1.18% from the previous period.

4, on the whole, the prices of domestic and foreign production areas have risen again in the opening and release stage, which proves that the current output of raw materials is less than that of previous years. Thailand and C ô te d'Ivoire are also actively responding to EUDR, and the certified raw materials can be increased by US $100-200. due to the downstream tire manufacturers exporting to Europe to request this certification, upstream raw material end certification is more active. Downstream tire starts fluctuated slightly, sea freight rose, and export orders tended to fall. But in the raw material price support is strong, the domestic smooth goes to the warehouse, the rubber price shock is strong. Pay attention to domestic inventory expectations and EUDR progress.

PX&PTA&MEG: unit supply recovery is expected to be enhanced, downstream polyester production and marketing is depressed

1. The price of PX fell first and then rose this week. Absolute prices rose 1.4 per cent to $1040 a tonne of CFR on Friday from a month earlier. The weekly average price rose 2.2 per cent month-on-month to $1032 a tonne. After the price of PTA rose this week, the average weekly price of spot goods was 5920 yuan / ton, up 2.1% from the previous month. This week glycol inner plate center of gravity wide finishing, to Friday, ethylene glycol disk firm uplink, spot high turnover to 4520-4525 yuan / ton, the spot base difference weakened obviously.

2, supply side, PX device dynamics: a 550000-ton PX device in Malaysia was restarted at the beginning of this week, and the device stopped unexpectedly on May 9th. In addition, a set of 1.34 million-ton PX in Saudi Arabia stopped accidentally for some reason, and the device was unstable in the early stage and operated at a low load.

casinoextreme1000freespins2022| Everbright Futures: May 27 Energy and Chemical Daily

PTA Chinese mainland plant changes: Hengli Dalian and Honggang 2.5 million tons recovered, Fuhai Chuang dropped 4.5 million tons to 50% earlier than expected, Ineos 1.25 million tons unplanned stop for four days to 5.24, Taiwan Chemical 1.5 million tons 5.23 stops to 6.23, by Thursday PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% (the previous value is 71.5%), production month-on-month improvement is limited, resulting in less-than-expected increments in the spot market. In the future, Ineos 125, Sinopec 220 and Pengwei 90 all plan to restart and market supply will resume by the end of May.

At present, the profit from coal is better than that from oil to ethylene glycol, and the start-up of coal-to-ethylene glycol is also at a high level in the past five years. Tongliaojin Coal 30, Shaanxi Yanchang 10 and Jianyuan 26 are resuming one after another this week, and coal production continues to increase. However, from June, the syngas plant has no maintenance plan for the time being, and it is about to enter the "peak summer". The rising momentum of coal prices will increase, and it is possible to suppress the high start-up of coal chemical industry. As of May 23, the overall start-up load of ethylene glycol in Chinese mainland area was 59.14% (1.02% higher than the previous period), of which the start-up load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 65.52% (2.46% higher than the previous period).

3. On the demand side, the change of polyester plant is limited this week, and the load of some factories has increased. As of Thursday, the preliminary calculation of polyester load in mainland China is around 88.7% (the previous value is 88.5%). Tongxiang and Jiangsu mainstream polyester factories plan to reduce parking by an additional 10% in the middle of the month, mainly related to filaments, but the actual implementation progress is slightly slower, so supply and demand have not yet begun to accumulate reserves. However, on Thursday, large filament manufacturers announced a price increase of 200-300 yuan / ton, with substantial replenishment in the lower reaches and a loss in cash flow. The market originally expected to continue to reduce production, but at present, the factory plans to ensure a certain processing profit.

4, on the whole, downstream demand is weak, polyester prices are also weakening, the factory to open replenishment, but the cash flow has been in a state of loss. Under the continuous accumulation of storage downstream, some factories continue to raise prices, and under the downturn in production and marketing, the possibility of starting work to continue to decline increases. The recovery rate of TA supply has gradually accelerated, and the demand for TA has fallen back, but recently, the inventory at the terminal is low, the liquidity of TA in the market is tight, the basis is strong, the price of crude oil at the cost end of the future is weak and volatile, PX and PTA follow the pullback, the price trend of weak TA is weak for increasing demand. From the perspective of ethylene glycol, in the short-term recovery capacity of oil-based and coal-made units, the recovery process of coal production is relatively smooth, the output is high, downstream demand is weak, inventory is a small accumulation this week, and ethylene glycol prices are weak and volatile. In the long term, the peak of coal consumption in summer restrains the high start-up of coal chemical industry, the coal load also falls seasonally from June to August, and the supply of ethylene glycol shrinks in the long term.

Methanol: the weak pattern of strong supply and demand gradually appears, and the structure changes to weak reality and strong expectation.

1. Supply: on the domestic side, some installations in the main producing areas of the mainland have been restored, resulting in a substantial increase in market operating rate and a month-on-month increase in weekly mainland production; in terms of imports, the number of arrivals to Hong Kong began to increase this week.

2, demand: along with MTO profits continue to deteriorate, resulting in a sharp decline in MTO start-up, while the traditional downstream operating rate is also basically a small decline, the overall demand continues to weaken.

3. Inventory: in the mainland, affected by the rise in refinery start-up, there is a higher price increase on the supply side, resulting in a slight increase in inland inventory; in terms of ports, the volume of incoming ports has increased month-on-month, while coastal MTO plant construction has declined, and ports have begun to accumulate stocks. Taken together, mainland inventories and port inventories have increased, resulting in a month-on-month increase in total inventories, but still a sharp decline compared with the same period last year.

4. Summary: from the supply point of view, the plant in the northwest production area has been gradually restored recently, and the start-up of methanol plant may resume to more than 80% next week. Domestic supply is expected to increase slightly, and with the recovery of import profits, the amount of incoming port is expected to increase. Overall supply will continue to increase. On the demand side, MTO profits continue to deteriorate, lower starts are expected to be fulfilled, low operating rates should be maintained in the short term, some traditional downstream profits begin to weaken, and the weekly operating rate of acetic acid also decreases sharply, and comprehensive demand is expected to continue to maintain a weak pattern. In terms of inventory, the short-term supply side is expected to increase, downstream demand is weaker, inland and port inventories are still under pressure, and total inventory will continue to increase. Generally speaking, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand at the realistic end gradually appears, and methanol will gradually enter the accumulation stage, especially the port inventory will continue to increase under the influence of the decrease of MTO start-up, it is expected that under the guidance of fiscal and monetary policy, there will be strong support, and the trend in the far month is expected to be stronger than that in recent months, and the basis will be weaker.

Polyolefin: at the end of the maintenance season, the pressure of supply and demand increases gradually.

1. Supply: the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene enterprises increased by 0.44% to 76.95% from the previous month, and the output increased by 0.44% to 500300 tons from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene enterprises increased by 1.03% to 72.47% from the previous month, and the total output increased by 1.19% to 624100 tons from the previous month.

2. Demand: the comprehensive operating rate of polyethylene downstream decreased by 2.49% to 42.36%, of which the operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 2.36% to 14.47%, and that of packaging film decreased by 2.08% to 50.41%.

The hollow operating rate decreased by 0.20% to 43.94%, the injection molding rate decreased by 1.26% to 55.48%, and the pipe operating rate decreased by 5.26% to 36.00%. The comprehensive operating rate of polypropylene downstream decreased by 0.04% to 51.93% from the previous month, of which the plastic knitting operating rate decreased by 0.24% to 42.10%, and the injection molding operating rate decreased by 1.26% to 55.48%.

3. Inventory: the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased by 7.78% to 520700 tons, of which the inventory of two oil decreased by 4.87% to 431300 tons, that of coal enterprises decreased by 19.60% to 89400 tons, and that of social inventory decreased by 2.64% to 648000 tons. Downstream agricultural film inventory fell 1.69% to 17400 tons, pipe inventory decreased 2.19% to 21200 tons, and packaging film inventory decreased 1.98% to 8.93 days. The inventory of polypropylene upstream production enterprises decreased by 0.33% to 573300 tons from the previous month, including 3.49% to 88500 tons from the previous month, 1.58% to 149200 tons from the drawing enterprises, 2.46% to 142600 tons from the middle reaches traders and 0.57% to 71100 tons from the previous month. Downstream plastic-woven inventories rose 3.12 per cent to 964.92 tonnes, while BOPP inventories fell 3.32 per cent to 1221.60 tonnes.

4. Raw materials: the spot price of Brent crude oil rose 0.22% to 81.93 US dollars per barrel, the price of naphtha decreased 0.42% to 7792.67 yuan / ton, the price of propane rose 2.13% to 5316.67 yuan / ton, the price of thermal coal rose 1.36% to 866.67 yuan / ton, and the price of methanol rose 2.22% to 2905.00 yuan / ton.

5. Summary: taken together, short-term PE and PP supply will increase, while demand is relatively weak, spot price pressure is greater, coupled with limited raw material end support, futures may also have a certain correction, but as September is the traditional peak season, the decline space will not be very large, the basis is expected to weaken, L-PP spread narrowed.

PVC: expected to improve, futures rising water will stimulate spot liquidity increase

1. Supply: the operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased by 3.86% to 75.52%, of which the operating rate of calcium carbide process decreased by 3.52% to 74.78%, and that of ethylene process decreased by 4.80% to 77.68%.

The loss of plant overhaul increased by 12.89% to 150900 tons from the previous month; the total output decreased by 3.99% to 429100 tons from the previous month, of which the calcium carbide production decreased by 3.70% to 317100 tons from the previous month; and the ethylene production decreased by 4.8% to 112100 tons from the previous month.

2. Demand: the operating rate of downstream enterprises decreased by 0.20% to 54.96% from the previous month, of which the pipe operating rate decreased by 0.61% to 50.63%, the profile operating rate increased by 0.001% to 48.89%, and the production and marketing rate increased by 11.66% to 165.26%.

3. Inventory: the inventory of upstream enterprises decreased by 7.13% to 350500 tons, of which the inventory of calcium carbide enterprises decreased by 7.77% to 251500 tons, the inventory of ethylene enterprises decreased by 5.44% to 99000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.03% to 598500 tons.

4. Raw materials: the price of thermal coal rose 1.75% to 870.00 yuan / ton, the price of calcium carbide rose 1.08% to 2800.00 yuan / ton, the price of naphtha decreased 0.5% to 7786.50 yuan / ton, and the price of methanol rose 0.85% to 2866.25 yuan / ton.

5. Summary: generally speaking, the early spot and futures prices of PVC have been low and fluctuated, and the valuation is low. Recently, with the landing of the real estate policy, futures prices have risen sharply, but due to the persistently high social inventory, the spot price response is slow, and the basis has weakened sharply, which also encourages traders to carry out risk-free arbitrage by buying spot futures, which can also be seen from the recent increase in the number of warehouse receipts. Therefore, some of the current social inventory may have been locked in the long term, resulting in a tight spot situation, which continues to stimulate the rise of futures, so it is expected that short-term PVC prices are still strong, pay attention to the changes of social inventory.

Soda ash: the state of tight balance remains the same, and the market runs firmly.

Soda ash futures prices are high and strong this week. As of Friday, the main contract closing price was 2402 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 7.42%. The price center of gravity in the spot market rose synchronously. This week, the price of heavy alkali in Shahe region was 22000.2300 yuan / ton, an increase of 50million yuan / ton over last week. The ex-factory price of natural alkali heavy alkali increased by 100 yuan / ton.

From a fundamental point of view, the decline in supply side is still one of the main factors supporting the market. Since the middle and last ten days of May, alkali plants have been overhauled in Qinghai, Henan and Shandong, and the production and supply level of soda ash have decreased obviously. Longzhong data show that as of May 23, the weekly operating rate of the soda industry fell 1.77 percentage points to 83.35%, and weekly production of soda fell 2.08% to 694800 tons. Next week and early June, there are still maintenance plans for some enterprises, while some of the early maintenance enterprises plan to resume production, and the supply of soda ash may fluctuate. Although the maintenance of alkali plants so far this year is relatively scattered, but in the later stage, with the increase of temperature, other alkali plants maintenance and production disturbance factors are still on the high side, at that time, the supply-side drive to the market is still worthy of attention.

The demand side shows signs of strong rigid demand and slowing procurement demand. Although there is no change in the production line of float glass and photovoltaic glass industry downstream of heavy alkali this week, their combined daily melting reached a high of 284100 tons, and the consumption of heavy alkali is also increasing. According to the data, the apparent consumption of soda ash this week was 727400 tons, up 1.68% from the previous week. At present, the weekly consumption of soda ash is still 32600 tons higher than the weekly output, and the phased tight balance still continues. Even so, after the continuous rise in soda prices, the speculative atmosphere in the middle and lower reaches has obviously weakened, and traders' quotations and transaction centers have loosened downwards, so we need to be on guard against the risk of negative feedback brought by resistance.

Soda ash inventories this week were 852700 tons, down 1.56 per cent from Monday and 3.68 per cent from last week. At the same time, midstream social sector inventories rose by about 39200 tons this week, offsetting the decline in corporate inventories. In the case of the game between output and consumption, the source of soda ash is mainly transferred from upstream to middle and lower reaches. What needs to be vigilant is that the current total inventory of soda ash enterprises and social links is 1.2021 million tons, which is relatively high.

Last week, the positive impact of real estate policy on soda ash and glass industry chain was gradually digested, but with the rising price center of glass futures, the positive feedback of industry chain continued to bring linkage effect to soda ash.

On the whole, although the soda supply side is good, it has been reflected in the futures market, the demand side has no bright spot in the short term, the new drivers at both ends of supply and demand are limited, and the momentum of the upward breakthrough in the futures market is limited. Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue the trend of high, firm and volatile next week. From the medium-term point of view, the supply of soda ash is still expected to decline, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market is more positive, and the price center of soda ash period is still upward driven. Pay close attention to the trend of macro and commodity market sentiment, the changing range of soda ash supply and the impact of real estate policy on the industrial chain.

Urea: there are many external influencing factors, and the disk surface fluctuates at a high level.

Urea futures prices fluctuated high this week, with the main contract closing at 2196 yuan / ton as of Friday, a weekly increase of 2.33%. Spot fluctuations between urban areas, May 24, Shandong market prices of 2380 yuan / ton, Henan Shangqiu market prices of 2380 yuan / ton, both remained stable compared with last Friday.

The range of changes in urea supply and demand is limited this week. Although some of the maintenance devices are gradually resumed production, the speed of supply improvement is relatively slow. Longzhong data show that the daily output of urea in China is 173800 tons on May 24, up 0.99% from 172100 tons last Friday. Next week, there are still enterprises overhauling and resuming production, the increment is greater than the reduction, and the daily output of urea is expected to increase gradually.

There is still rigid demand on the demand side this week, but the intensity has slowed down. On the one hand, it comes from the end of agricultural demand and fertilizer preparation, on the other hand, it comes from the decline of rigid demand for urea downstream. According to Longzhong data, the apparent consumption of urea this week was 1.2799 million tons, down 5.91% from the previous week. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer and melamine industry increased by 0.87 percentage points and decreased by 4.02 percentage points respectively this week. Since the middle and late ten days, many regions in China have begun to harvest wheat, and at the end of the month, there is still a busy season for wheat harvest in mainstream areas, when the activity of the urea spot market will weaken again. From June to August, domestic field crops will also usher in the topdressing season, and the support on the demand side may show a trend of weak at first and then strong.

Urea inventories fell 14.76 per cent to 321200 tonnes this week. Although the extent of going to the treasury is still obvious, the downstream follow-up has slowed down. Considering that the urea enterprises receive enough orders in advance, the inventory decreases in the process of carrying out the orders.

International urea prices are mainly rising this week. Affected by the high temperature, the supply of natural gas raw materials in Egypt has been restricted again, and local urea workers have reduced production. The export FOB price of large granular urea in Egypt has reached US $323 per tonne, up 15.36 per cent from FOB280 US dollars per tonne in early May. In view of the strictness of China's export management, the impact of international market fluctuations on the domestic is relatively limited. However, whether the rise in global natural gas and other energy prices continues to affect the global urea supply and whether it is transmitted to domestic sentiment still needs to be closely watched.

This week, the urea market is also greatly affected by the news side and emotional side. On Monday, after the current price rose significantly, a number of urea companies spontaneously issued an initiative to ensure domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply and market price stability, indicating that they will not accept export orders for the time being and maintain factory prices at no higher than May 21 levels. Subsequently, sentiment fluctuations in the urea market narrowed.

On the whole, although there is support at both ends of short-term urea supply and demand, the marginal change is expected to be empty. The short-term news and macro impact is greater than the fundamentals, driven by the trend of related varieties in the commodity market is still relatively strong, it is expected that the short-term urea futures market is not driven by a sharp decline, so it is suggested to treat it with interval concussion. Under the guidance of stable supply and stable price of domestic agricultural materials, we can still consider the strategy of selling short when the market sentiment calms down and supply and demand weakens. Pay attention to the range of changes in urea supply and demand, fluctuations in global energy prices, macro and overall sentiment changes in commodity markets.

Glass: the positive factors fade temporarily, and the disk returns to the trend of concussion.

Glass futures prices continued to rise this week, as of Friday, the main contract closing price of 1716 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 6.12%. The spot market is weak, with an average price of 1670 yuan / ton in the domestic float glass market as of May 24, down 20 yuan / ton from last Friday.

From a fundamental point of view, the drive of the glass market is relatively limited. The level of glass production is high and stable this week. Longzhong data show that the daily melting capacity of glass is 172200 tons on May 24th, unchanged from last week. Glass enterprises had 59.62 million heavy cases this week, a slight increase of 0.23% compared with the previous week. The impact of marginal changes in the middle and upper reaches of data is weak.

This week's glass spot high turnover can be maintained, but the regional differentiation is also more obvious. Shahe area turnover improved for many days and maintained a high of more than 100% for a long time, more than 80% in other areas hovered around, glass demand side of the overall follow-up efforts are not as expected. After the subsequent market hoarding demand weakens, it is still dominated by rigid demand, while rigid demand is limited by the slow recovery of terminal real estate demand. Data from the Bureau of Statistics show that the area of new housing starts fell 24.6 percent from January to April compared with the same period last year, the area under construction fell 10.8 percent from the same period last year, and the area completed decreased by 20.4 percent year on year.

Some glass production lines are expected to be ignited next week, and the supply is still expected to increase. The demand side slows down again in the middle and lower reaches after the phased replenishment of the stock. In terms of fundamentals, there is no bright spot in the glass market for the time being, and the mentality of the industrial chain is mainly stable and weak. However, the current trading logic still lies in the macro-improvement, the continuous introduction of real estate policies, the continuous improvement of glass demand in the future, and so on. With the futures market on the real estate policy support of the positive factors have been digested, the market continues to rise insufficient momentum, short-term or will return to the high wide shock trend, do not rule out the possibility of a pullback. Follow-up need to continue to pay attention to the strength of real estate policy, the recovery process of terminal real estate demand, glass spot transactions and changes in market sentiment.

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