n1casinonodepositbonus| ETF Daily: The trend of gold stocks is similar to that of gold prices. The trend of gold stocks may be more flexible than that of commodity gold. You can pay attention to gold stock ETFs
Today, the market volatility climbed, the Shanghai Composite Index reached an 8-month high, cyclical stocks strengthened across the board, non-ferrous metals led the rise, and real estate stocks showed divergent performance. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.N1casinonodepositbonus.54% at 3171N1casinonodepositbonusAt 15:00, the gem index rose 0.59 per cent. The turnover of A-shares throughout the day is close to 1 trillion yuan.
SourceN1casinonodepositbonus: Wind
Recent A-share overall recovery, Prev today refresh a new high of the year. The Shanghai Composite Index ETF (510760) rose 0.55%, attracting a net inflow of more than 450 million yuan in the past 10 days.
The "medium special valuation" content of the Shanghai Composite Index is even higher. Compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the overweight is obvious in banking, public utilities, transportation, petrochemical, coal and other industries with low valuation and high dividend. In recent years, driven by the special valuation market, the Shanghai Composite Index has also outperformed it.N1casinonodepositbonusHis mainstream wide base index.
It is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index ETF adopts the sampling replication strategy and achieves some excess returns on the basis of achieving the tracking target. According to Wind, the Shanghai Composite Index ETF gained 6.15% in the past three years as of March 31, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose-11.64% over the same period, with an excess return of 17.79%.
In the context of the current weak economic recovery, the new "National Nine articles" strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies, which is expected to boost the market style towards high dividend sectors in the short term. Superimposed at the beginning of the year, the relevant departments proposed to include market value management in the assessment of the heads of central enterprises, the medium-and long-term allocation value of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is outstanding, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a comparative advantage. Interested partners can follow the Shanghai Composite Index ETF (510760), which has the lowest rates on the market.
Judging from today's market, the catalytic direction of real estate policy has spread, with coal ETF (515220) up 3.46 per cent. The slight correction in the coal sector last week was mainly due to concerns about the resumption of night shift production by some enterprises in Shanxi, which led to the release of supply, which in turn worried about a pullback in coal prices.
The resumption of production in Shanxi may be more about controlling and reducing production, because the output reduction in the first quarter is too large, and if the reduction is maintained, it will far exceed the Shanxi government's production reduction target. Generally speaking, the contraction in coal production supply in 2024 has high certainty.
In terms of coking coal and coke, coal mine safety accidents have occurred in some areas recently, and the security inspection situation has become stricter again, which is expected to affect the further release of coal mine production capacity increment. Demand is affected by real estate policy, the recent steel price shock rebound, in the context of macro expectations of warming, can be more optimistic about the future coking coal, coke prices.
In the case of thermal coal, the growth rate of thermal power has gradually recovered. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial power generation in April was 690.1 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.1 percent over the same period last year, or 0.3 percentage points faster than in March. Among them, industrial thermal power increased by 1.3% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than in March. With the arrival of the peak summer season, the rebound in demand for thermal coal is expected to support coal prices.
Recently, pig prices show the characteristics of the off-season, and the rise in pig prices has also led to a sustained rebound in breeding ETF (159865). As of May 18, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 15.9 yuan per kg, up 1.92 percent from the previous weekend. Whether it is the recent weight loss, or the recent slow rise in pig prices, all reflect that the fundamentals of pig supply and demand are gradually alleviating.
On the demand side, there are only more than ten days from the Dragon Boat Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival price increase is expected to be optimistic about the future market, the enthusiasm of the second fattening market is increased again, it is more difficult for butcher enterprises to purchase, and there is a strong sentiment of selling at the end of the breeding price.
According to the stock data of fertile sows, the stock of fertile sows decreased month by month from April to December this year, so the supply of live pigs will also decline month by month, and the loose supply situation is expected to improve.
At present, the financial pressure of the pig farming industry is tight, and the rise in pig prices will help to alleviate the financial situation in the short term, but it cannot support capacity replenishment and expansion. It is expected that there will be a co-existence of pig price rebound and capacity removal in the future. At that time, there will be obvious catalysis in the cycle operation.
The current round of capacity elimination has taken more than one year. As of March 2024, the cumulative maximum removal range of the Ministry of Agriculture / Yongyi Consulting is 11% and 12% respectively, and the volume of production capacity of the Ministry of Agriculture has reached the lowest level since 2021. The current valuation of the aquaculture sector is still historically low, cycle reversal is expected, or there is still a low layout opportunity.
Spot gold fluctuated higher this morning, once setting an all-time high. Affected by it, related products rose sharply today, including gold stock ETF (517400) rose 5.62%, since the listing on May 8, the unit net worth has exceeded 1.1.
On the news, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on May 11 local time, saying that the Israeli army bombed many places in the Gaza Strip, including the southernmost city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, and asked more residents of Rafah to evacuate. If Israel launches large-scale military action against Rafah, it will further aggravate the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, superimposing factors such as the still tense situation between Russia and Ukraine and the high uncertainty of the US general election, and geopolitical risk aversion factors may exist for a long time.
Domestically, as of March this year, China's gold reserves were 72.74 million ounces, an increase of 160000 ounces from the previous month, increasing its gold reserves for the 18th consecutive month. In the global dimension, the net purchase volume of central banks around the world increased by 1% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, the highest demand for gold purchases by central banks in the first quarter. With the gradual increase in de-dollarization demand, central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, further highlighting the allocation value of gold.
Source: Wind, World Gold Council, International Trade Futures Research Institute
Us core CPI in April, revealed last week, fell to 3.6 per cent year-on-year, the lowest since April 2021. In the United States, non-farmers and CPI were lower than expected in April, mainly due to the long duration of the previous high interest rate environment. The inflation and employment data focused on by the Fed's monetary policy are also weak, and the probability of starting this round of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has increased.
With the disclosure of US economic data, expectations of interest rate cuts may swing back and forth, but the general direction of interest rate cuts remains the same. The trend of gold stocks is similar to that of gold prices, but during the rise in gold prices in recent years, gold stocks may be more flexible relative to commodity gold. Interested investors can follow gold stocks ETF (517400) and gold fund ETF (518800).
The military industry ETF (512660) rose 1.09% today. Last Wednesday, the Beijing City Bureau of Economy and Information Technology officially publicly solicited the "Beijing City Action Plan to Promote the High-Quality Development of Low-altitude Economic Industries (2024-2027)(Draft for Comments)." On the same day, the Nanjing Low-altitude Economic Development Conference was held in Pukou. Four advanced technological achievements of low-altitude Intelligent Network, including 5G-A communication integrated technology for low-altitude Intelligent Network, were released at the meeting.
Recently, the focus of low-altitude economic development is gradually shifting from formulating planning policies such as development plans and action plans to actual implementation levels such as holding development conferences and open days. In addition, future development directions such as low-altitude intelligent networking, logistics and other application scenarios, and the integration of 5G-A and low-altitude economy have been frequently mentioned. The low-altitude economy will usher in a new stage driven by the evolution of advanced technologies and the exploration of new implementation scenarios.
After experiencing rapid growth from 2020 to 2022, the military industry has significant differences in performance in sub-sectors in 2023, and structural differentiation has intensified. It is expected to usher in high-quality development in the future. As equipment technology continues to develop, more investment opportunities may arise in the field of new domain and new quality operations. In addition, as China increasingly moves towards the center of the world stage, military trade exports are expected to become a new growth point for the military sector.
The current P/E ratio of the military industry sector is around 55x, close to the valuation low level in June 2020. There is a large room for upward repair, and the investment cost performance of the sector is prominent. The current sector is in the triple bottom range of valuation, performance growth and capital allocation. We can pay attention to the investment opportunities of the military ETF (512660).
Source: Wind
Risk warning investors should fully understand the difference between regular fixed investment of funds and savings methods such as fractional deposit and lump-sum withdrawal. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method that guides investors to make long-term investments and average investment costs. However, regular and fixed investment does not avoid the risks inherent in fund investment, does not ensure that investors will receive returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method instead of savings. Whether it is stock ETF/LOF/graded funds, they are securities investment fund types with higher expected risks and expected returns, and their expected returns and expected risk levels are higher than hybrid funds, bond funds and money market funds. When fund assets invest in stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and GEM, they will face unique risks caused by differences in investment objects, market systems and trading rules, and investors are reminded. The short-term price and fall of sectors/funds is only used as an auxiliary material for the analysis of the article. It is for reference only and does not constitute a guarantee for the performance of the fund. The short-term performance of individual stocks mentioned in the article is for reference only and does not constitute a stock recommendation, nor does it constitute a prediction or guarantee of the fund's performance. The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. If you need to purchase relevant fund products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor appropriateness management, conduct risk assessments in advance, and purchase fund products with matching risk levels based on your own risk tolerance.
Funds are risky and investment needs to be cautious.
Contributing author: Guotai Fund
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