arcadegametable| China-Thailand Futures Research News: Egg prices rise, profits increase, apple stocks decrease but face pressure
Newsletter summary
The price of eggs has been adjusted, and the supply has been stable, but consumption has supported a rise. The futures market recommends shorting every high and paying attention to stop losses. There is a change in supply and demand in the apple market, the inventory is reduced, and the western producing area is active, but we should be on guard against the market share of seasonal fruit competition.ArcadegametableThe impact.
Text of news flash
[egg prices stop rising and sufficient supply drives the enthusiasm of market shipments] yesterday, egg prices stopped rising and fell, among which the price reduction of Hebei vermicelli eggs was particularly obvious. As of May 21, the average price of pink eggs is 3.Arcadegametable96 yuan per jin, and the average price of red eggs is 4.08 yuan per jin. At present, the egg price has exceeded the comprehensive cost line of breeding, and the profit of laying hens is good.
Although the supply side has not changed much, the pull of the consumer side has led to a rise in egg prices. Inventories in production areas and distribution channels remain low, and egg consumption is released rapidly. With the rise of vegetable prices in the south, the substitution effect of eggs has been enhanced, resulting in a significant increase in the arrival volume in the southern sales area. Traders are in a positive mood to receive goods, there is not much surplus, and the price of eggs continues to rise. With the acceleration of market circulation, egg prices rise in a strong atmosphere. However, the rise in egg prices has slowed down the elimination of old chickens, accelerated the opening of new chickens, and maintained an adequate supply of eggs. In the coming rainy season, the hot and humid weather is disadvantageous to the storage of eggs, which is easy to cause quality problems, and the market shipping enthusiasm increases, so it is necessary to guard against the risk of rapid decline in egg prices in the later stage.
In the futures market, contracts are likely to weaken along with spot prices in recent months. The core logic of the far-moon contract lies in the removal of production capacity at low egg prices. after the recent rise in egg prices, breeding profits, the pace of elimination of old chickens may slow down, which is disadvantageous to the elimination of layer capacity, thus limiting the room for price increases in the far month. In operation, investors are advised to short every high and pay attention to stop losses.
[Apple futures price shock weak production areas to welcome the small peak season] the main contract prices fluctuated, 10 contracts closed at 7508 yuan / ton, down 53 points from the previous trading day, trading volume decreased, position increased. In mid-May, with the advent of the small peak season for warehouse delivery in Shandong production areas, the number of transfer merchants increased, and the overall market performance was the same as May Day. The quality and prices of fruit farmers have both declined, while the prices of preserved fruits and some sources of goods have risen. At present, the average transaction price of apples in Qixia market is 4.05 yuan / jin, while the price in Yiyuan production area has dropped, and the number of inquiring merchants has increased.
In the western producing areas, the delivery of fruit farmers in Luochuan, Shaanxi Province has entered the late stage, the stock is still available, the price has dropped, and the enthusiasm of fruit farmers is high. The average transaction price of apples in Luochuan market is 4.35 yuan / jin. Shanxi production area Yuncheng paper film, film bag price is stable and hard, out of the warehouse faster. The price of Gansu production area is relatively high, the price is firm, and the transaction is accelerated; Qingyang production area is more willing to go out of the warehouse, the good goods are in demand, and the warehouse is released faster.
According to Mysteel, as of May 15, the storage capacity of cold storage of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 3.3225 million tons, down 426200 tons from last week. The speed of delivery is faster than that of last week. Statistics show that as of May 15, the storage capacity of cold storage in the country was about 2.9817 million tons, with an inventory removal rate of 66.58%. The total output of cold storage in this cycle was 383000 tons, and the shipping speed was slightly higher than that of last week.
In the recent supply of cold storage goods in the producing areas, there are fewer good goods, the prices of preserved fruits and other apples have bottomed out and rebounded, some merchants have actively transferred the source of goods with high performance-to-price ratio, and the goods of fruit farmers in some western producing areas have been cleared. After May Day, Apple's overall sales were stable, benefiting from the stability of Apple's supply throughout the year and continued consumer demand for Apple. However, the price of seasonal fruits is too high, weakening their substitution for apples. With the change of seasons, the bumper harvest of seasonal fruits such as watermelons, melons and cherries may seize the market share of apples to some extent, putting pressure on apple sales.
The investigation found that the fruit setting of apples in some producing areas of Baishui, southern Luochuan and Fuxian County in Shaanxi Province was not good, while that in Qingyang City was better. The small amount of flowers in the flowering stage may directly lead to poor apple fruit setting, such as Baishui producing area; the rainy weather in the full flowering period may affect fruit setting, such as the southern part of Luochuan County, Fuxian local producing area and Baishui producing area. The fruit setting condition is good in Qingyang City, Gansu Province. After May Day, the peak consumption season of Apple is coming to an end, but the recent performance of the production area is better, and the performance of the sales area is normal. The quality of the production area is poor, the price is low, the cost of finishing the finished product is high, the market price does not change much, and the price drop is not effectively transmitted to the sales area market; the overall consumption stability deviation of the sales area market, and the price of alternative fruit has little impact on apples, but fruit category sales are more difficult. As for apples in the new season, there is a deviation in fruit setting in some producing areas and good fruit setting in other producing areas.
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