rouletterake|纸浆在供需双减中来回博弈 原纸行业处于传统淡季

Source: Hongye Futures Author: Hongye Futures

Research report text

[Core View of Pulp]

Review of the market: The main pulp contract surged last week and adjusted in shock. It opened at 6396, with a low of 6270 and a high of 6520, closing at 6284, a decrease of 1rouletterake.54%。As of May 24, the top 20 long positions of the pulp 2409 contract held 120114 lots (a decrease of 207 lots from the previous day), and the top 20 short positions held 132148 lots (a decrease of 1024 lots from the previous day).

Spot price: As of May 24, Shandong Yinxing was 6450 yuan/ton (since November 2019, Shandong Yinxing had a minimum of 4350 yuan/ton and a maximum of 7600 yuan/ton, which was 64 yuan/ton in the past 5 years.rouletterake.61rouletterakepercentile); Shandong Russian needle 6100 yuan/ton.

Import costs: Brazilian paper and pulp producer Suzano will increase pulp prices in June. Canada's Canfor announced that the latest external offer for bleached softwood pulp North Wood was US$870/ton, up US$50/ton from the previous round. Mercer announced that the price of softwood pulp in the Chinese market will increase by US$30/ton in May, of which the price of softwood pulp moon will be US$850/ton. Chilean Arauco Company announced the outer pulp market in May, with softwood pulp silver star US$820/ton, up US$40/ton; broadleaf pulp star US$740/ton, up US$30/ton.

Supply: Shipments in major international markets declined in March and April. Among them, Chilean softwood pulp decreased by 3.6% month-on-month; Uruguayan hardwood pulp decreased by 68.4% month-on-month; Brazilian hardwood pulp decreased by 2.3% month-on-month, and Finnish softwood pulp decreased by 66.3% month-on-month. Major domestic ports are expected to decline in arrivals in May and June.

Demand: The downstream base paper industry is in the traditional off-season, and the start-up of downstream paper companies has generally declined, and the sentiment about raw material procurement is poor.

Inventories: As of May 23, 2024, China's mainstream pulp port sample inventory volume was 1.804 million tons, up 1.2% month-on-month and down 11% year-on-year. Port inventories have remained unchanged since 2024.rouletterakemedian level.

Summary: Pulp prices may continue to play back and forth in the double reduction of supply and demand, supported by import costs and suppressed by poor demand. The reference range is 6150-6450.

[Pulp Price Data]

[Pulp Price Data]

[Pulp Supply]

[Pulp Demand]

[Pulp Inventory]

[Downstream base paper starts]

[Downstream base paper consumption]

[Downstream base paper inventory]

[Downstream base paper prices]

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