tuesdaybingonearme| London gold consolidates at US$2336: U.S. PMI hits a new high in May, the U.S. dollar index rebounds, precious metals are under pressure

News summary

The precious metals market experienced a correction, with London gold and silver trading at US$2336 and US$30 respectively.tuesdaybingonearme.3 U.S. dollars; the U.S. dollar was under short-term pressure, and the RMB exchange rate fell to 7.245; the U.S. PMI data in May was strong, the number of initial jobless claims hit a new low, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates were lowered.

Newsletter text

Precious metals market consolidates Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver closed down slightly. Following the decline in the previous trading day, the precious metals market showed a consolidation trend in intraday trading today. London gold prices remained stable at around US$2336, while London silver fluctuated around US$30.3. At the same time, Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 554.48 yuan/gram, recording 1.72%tuesdaybingonearmefell; the main contract of Shanghai Bank closed at 7994 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.16%.

The US dollar index is in a tug of war. U.S. bond yields have limited fluctuations. The US dollar index fell slightly and is currently engaged in a tug of war around the 105 mark. In addition, the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds remained around 4.47%, with relatively limited fluctuations.

The performance of the RMB exchange rate is weak and the mid-point is fine-tuned. The RMB exchange rate continues to decline and is now trading at around 7.245. The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1102 yuan today, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day.

U.S. economic data is strong, the number of initial jobless claims reaches a record low. The U.S. S & P's manufacturing and services PMI values in May recorded 50.9 and 54.8 respectively, both setting multi-month highs. In addition, the initial S & P's comprehensive PMI in May recorded 54.4, the best performance in the past two years. The number of initial jobless claims fell to 215,000 in the week ending May 18, the lowest level in a month and a half.

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, expectations rise, and bets on interest rates fall. According to the Federal Reserve's observations, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June is as high as 98.9%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is also 86.8%. Market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have cooled down. The probability of interest rate cuts by September is currently expected to be 48%, and the number of interest cuts this year may be only one.

Precious metals market is under pressure and expected correction. The precious metals market is under pressure under the dual influence of the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes showing a hawkish stance and the U.S. PMI data in May exceeding expectations. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the year have been reduced. The US dollar index and 10-year US bond yields are expected to rebound, and the precious metals market will face a certain degree of correction.

Trading strategy focuses on support points Option trading holds a wait-and-see attitude. Investors need to pay attention to the US$2330 support point for London gold and the US$30 mark for London silver on unilateral trading strategies. The support points of 551 yuan for the main contract of Shanghai Gold and 7830 yuan for the main contract of Shanghai Bank are also worthy of attention. As for carry trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. In terms of options trading, it is recommended to sell AU2408 C576 and AG2408 C8500.

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