freegamekingvideopoker| Soybean meal disk turbulence is strong, waiting for opportunity basis is weak

Source: China Grain Network

During the Labour Day holidayFreegamekingvideopokerTorrential rains in southern Brazil triggered flooding, seriously affecting the soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, sparking bullish enthusiasm in the market, with the main contract for CBOT soybeans rising above 1250 cents per bushel. As the Brazilian weather rally was digested by trading, the bulls made a profit before the USDA's May supply and demand report, and the price of the main CBOT soybean contract fell back to around 1200 cents / bushel. After that, although the USDA's May supply and demand report data was short, under the support of tariff rumors to stimulate the rise in soybean oil futures and the adequate support of weather speculation, soybean futures in the US market were still strong and volatile. Following the trend of CBOT soybeans, since May, the operating center of the main contract of domestic soybean meal has risen significantly, showing a sharp uprush at first and then slightly falling back to a strong shock around 3550 yuan / ton.FreegamekingvideopokerThe running situation of. As the spot inventory of soybean meal continues to rise, the fundamentals are empty, and the basis is relatively weak, showing a slightly weak trend. As of May 17, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal in China was about 3450 yuan / ton, up 145yuan / ton from the end of April. The contract base difference of 09 in North China was-110yuan / ton in recent months, down 50 yuan / ton from the end of April. In Guangdong, the contract base difference was-140yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from the end of April. Imports of soybeans to Hong Kong increased, stocks of soybeans and soybean meal in oil factories rose, according to the General Administration of Customs, domestic imports of soybeans in April 2024 were 8.57 million tons, an increase of 54 percent over the same period last monthFreegamekingvideopoker.69%, an increase of 18% over the same period last yearFreegamekingvideopoker.04%. The cumulative import volume from January to April in 2024 was 27.15 million tons, a decrease of 10.34% over the same period last year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to arrive at about 10 million tons in May and 11 million tons in June. With the increase of imported soybeans to Hong Kong, the shortage of soybean stocks in oil plants eased, and inventories continued to rise higher than the same period of the previous two years, resulting in an overall increase in the operating rate of oil plants. As of the 19th week, the operating rate of domestic oil plants had risen to more than 50%. Due to the rising profit level of breeding, the operating range of soybean meal has also moved down from 4000 yuan / ton, stimulating the rise of consumer demand for soybean meal, and the proportion of soybean meal added nationwide has been raised. As a result, the soybean meal delivery volume of the oil plant increased, and the trading volume was significantly higher than that in January and February, especially in the far-month contract volume of the oil plant. However, with the opening rate of oil plants rebounding rapidly, soybean meal stocks in oil plants have continued to increase since April and have been significantly higher than in the same period last year. Domestic soybean imports to Hong Kong continued to increase in May and June, the demand for soybean meal is expected to be good, and the oil plant soybean meal is expected to continue to be in a state of accumulation. Brazilian soybean premium price is strong, domestic soybean import cost is high although the price of US soybean fell in April, domestic oil companies are active in buying ships, the Brazilian real is weak, and Brazilian soybean crushing profits are considerable, supporting Brazilian soybean CNF liter discount prices are relatively strong. In May, southern Brazil was hit by floods, and StoneX estimated that Brazilian soybean production would be reduced to 147.8 million tons in 2024 from 150.8 million tons before, adding to the impact of floods on harvesting, warehousing and port logistics, as well as active domestic buying of ships, Brazilian soybean export prices were supported and remained strong, which in turn underpinned the cost of domestic soybean imports and the spot basis of soybean meal. As of May 17, Brazilian soybeans were quoted for shipping CNF in June, up 13 cents per cattail compared with the end of April. The customs value of imported Brazilian soybeans to Hong Kong for delivery in June was 4075 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton from the end of April. Although the loss of Brazilian soybean production caused by floods will not change the pattern of loose international soybean supply and demand, heavy rain damage to infrastructure has led to a decline in soybean export capacity in Rio Grande do Sul, which may affect the subsequent arrival rhythm of domestic soybean imports to Hong Kong, which in turn will boost the spot and basis of domestic soybean meal, which needs to be closely watched. Plenty of hype, American beans and soybean meal will shake strongly and wait for an opportunity. judging from the current market environment, on May 9, in order to oppose the government's new economic policy, many industries in Argentina held a 24-hour national strike. Ports and soybean crushing plants around Rosario's main hub are shut down. There is still great uncertainty about whether the strike will be held again in the future. In terms of planting and production, the harvest of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina was delayed due to heavy rainfall. As of May 12, Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul harvested only 79% of soybeans, down from 86% in the same period last year. As of May 8, Argentina had harvested 47.8% soybeans, 13% behind the five-year average for the same period. As of May 12, the sowing progress of American beans was 35%, lower than the 39% expected by the market, compared with 45% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 34%. The rainy weather has slowed down the pace of spring sowing in the United States, but at present, the overall good tone of the planting progress of American beans has not been changed. if there are no further changes, it will mainly play a supporting role in the US market, and it is difficult to bring a new pull up. Although the flood profit in southern Brazil has been largely fully traded in the US market, even if it eventually brings the expected production loss of 20-3 million tons, it will be difficult to bring a new boost to the US bean market. However, considering that drought threatens Russian wheat production, Sino-US trade relations are tense, the international geopolitical situation is changeable, floods in southern Brazil, strikes in Argentina, and American beans are in a weather speculation sensitive period, there are many topics, and the overall market environment is on the high side, and it is extremely easy to pull up the market brought by new news. It is expected that the short-term CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal will run in a narrow range and strong, waiting for new news to appear.

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